본문 바로가기

경제

The market rally, which was too hot, eventually cooled down ... "May be 10% more"

The market rally, which was too hot, eventually cooled down ... "May be 10% more"


- 10-Year Treasury Debt Interest Rate 4-Year High ... The number of the three sites in the market `

- Shares in both stocks and bonds ... The biggest collapse in nine years

- Even the strongest thinker "10% lower" ... Increased volatility concerns


Earlier in the bull market in New York,

Even if the US economy is so good, inflation does not soar, and the Federal Reserve has not hurried to raise the benchmark interest rate, which has been the driving force behind the rally.

This is the reason that future inflation and the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike will raise US Treasury yields quickly.

Market participants are now worried that the end of the bull market with equities and bonds has come.


On the second day (local time), stocks in the New York market fell sharply, and so did the price of government bonds.

The Dow plummeted 2.54 percent, or 666 points, to close at 25,520.96.

It was the biggest drop in one year and eight months since June 2016.

The Standard & Poor's 500 was down 2.12 per cent in the day to 2762.13, while the Nasdaq was down 1.96 per cent to 7240.95.

The S & P 500 index plunged nearly 4 percent for the week, the worst performer in two years.

In addition, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 2.85% in the bond market and rebounded to its highest level in nearly four years.

The 30 - year Treasury note rate, which has already reached 3% a day ago, rose to 3.079%, the highest level since 11 months in March.


As a result, more and more investors are selling shares, debentures and assets.

It is sort of a hustle.

SPDR S & P 500 ETF, the leading stock index index fund (ETF) that represents the real New York stock market, and the ISEAS 20-year ETF combined have recorded the largest decline since the first nine years of 2009.

Mike Bael, director of asset management at US Bank, said, "The key to a sharp fall in the market today was interest rate hikes." Wall Street's optimism that the bull market is ending due to rising market interest rates is gradually becoming a reality. "


The average hourly wage announced by the US Department of Labor is slowly rising.


In particular, concerns over the Fed's tightening move ahead of the Labor Department's announcement of good employment indicators in January all led to concerns.

As inflationary expectations begin to pick up in the economic boom, good economic indicators are now being accepted as negative.

The Labor Ministry announced that the number of new non-agricultural workers in January rose to 160,000 from 148,000 in December, while the average hourly wage rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the highest in eight years and a half since June 2009.

If household incomes rise, the probability of raising US inflation is very high.

"The bond market has responded to the rise in average hourly wages from January employment indicators," said David Regenson, director of research at James Ledon. "The Fed is slowly moving its market sentiment toward four key rates this year, "


There is a growing prospect that a meaningful adjustment phase will follow.

Professor Jeremy Siegel Wharton, a leading US stock market loser, commented on the New York stock market adjustment that "the wage increase rate is the highest in nine years, so we can raise the benchmark interest rate four times this year, and the 10-year government bond yield rate is 3% "It seems that the stock market has been overly reflecting the massive tax cuts and infrastructural investments this year, and it seems that we should keep in mind adjustments of up to 10%, as we are in the midst of a boom."


However, the fact that the bull market has not yet been completed is still prevailing.

Jeffrey Schulz, chief strategist at Clear Bridge Investments, said, "It is difficult to see that the bull market is completely over yet," he said. "The prospects that the US economy is going to go back to recession is a prerequisite for the bull market to be completed."

He added that 11 of the 12 major macroeconomic variables are still showing strong growth, saying that "the economy is still in an expansion phase."

The market is expected to continue to expand until at least the first half of the year.

However, the fact that Citigroup's US surprise index, which is based on a peak in January, is showing signs of slowing growth momentum.


Once the market's uncertainty grows, there is a prospect that volatility will continue to rise for the time being.

Schulz, chief strategist, said, "The volatility seems to have turned into a turning point again," he said. "With the end of the volatile upturn rally like 2017, the volatility is expected to gradually increase."

In fact, VIX, the so-called "Fear Index" traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOE), climbed to 17.6, its highest level in a year and three months since November 2016.